Abstract
As a potential source of multiweek predictability, we investigate impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on temperature extremes during Austral winter using observational data analysis. We find a significant MJO influence on weekly mean minimum temperatures across much of northern and eastern Australia, with lower than normal minimum temperatures tending to occur during MJO phases 6 and 7. The likelihood of extreme weekly mean minimum temperatures also increases by at least of factor of 2 during these phases. In contrast, negligible impacts on maximum temperatures are observed. The proximate cause of the lower than normal minimum temperatures in these MJO phases is the anomalous equatorward advection of cool/dry continental air and enhanced night-time radiative cooling due to the drier conditions. The lack of any impact on maximum temperatures presumably stems from compensating day time warming from enhanced incoming shortwave radiation. The circulation anomalies over Australia during MJO phases 5–7 are shown to be a combination of the direct baroclinic response to the anomalous tropical convection driven by the MJO and the Rossby wave train that propagates from the tropics to the extratropics that is primarily confined to the Australian sector. The confinement of the extratropical Rossby wave train to the Australian sector results from a combination of localization of the Rossby wave source to the north of Australia and localization of wave propagation stemming from the refractive characteristics of the mean state zonal wind, which does not support tropical-extratropical wave paths to the east of Australia. An extratropical wave source due to feedback from transient eddies acts as an effective source of the extratropical response to the south of Australia and for the wave train that impinges on South America.
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source advection term S1 (contoured, negative values dashed, zero contour omitted, interval 1.5 × 10–11 m2s−1). In Southern Hemisphere, positive Rossby wave source means anticyclonic tendency; an anticyclonic anomaly corresponds to negative streamfunction anomaly. Corresponding figures for MJO phase 1 to 4 are identically opposite in sign
source stretching term S2. For clarity contour interval 3 × 10–11 m2s−1 is used for S2 which is twice that for term S1 used in Fig. 5
source vortex stretching term S2 (contoured, negative values dashed, zero contour omitted, interval 3 × 10−11 m2s−1)
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Acknowledgements
We thank George Kiladis, Matthew Wheeler, Andrew Marshall and two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments on the manuscript. Support for this work was provided by the Forewarned is Forearmed project, which is supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture as part of its Rural R&D for Profit programme. This research was undertaken at the NCI National Facility in Canberra, Australia, which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government. The NCAR Command Language (NCL; https://www.ncl.ucar.edu) version 6.4.0 was used for data analysis and visualization of the results.
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Wang, G., Hendon, H.H. Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on wintertime Australian minimum temperatures and Southern Hemisphere circulation. Clim Dyn 55, 3087–3099 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05432-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05432-x