China’s decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce seaborne coal imports: Results from an installation-level model

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.03.008

Joule

Volume 6, Issue 4, 20 April 2022, Pages 782-815

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.03.008 Get rights and content

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Highlights

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We develop an installation-level model of the world’s biggest coal market
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Chinese decarbonization and energy security policy stand to reduce coal imports
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Investment in transport infrastructure will push out overseas thermal coal imports
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Seaborne coking coal imports will fall with growing supply from Mongolia

Context & scale

China is the world’s largest importer of coal for power generation and steelmaking. It has recently announced a 2060 net-zero emission target and aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030, which will inevitably reduce its consumption of coal. China is also building more transport infrastructure to get coal from domestic mines to its steel and power plants, in an effort to reduce dependency on coal imports.

These two factors are expected to reduce overseas imports of thermal coal, mostly from Indonesia and Australia, from 185 Mt in 2019 to between 95 and 130 Mt by 2025. Overseas imports of coking coal, mostly from Australia, are expected to fall from 34 Mt in 2019 to between 23 and 25 Mt by 2025.

Summary

China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 and an emission peak before 2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal for power generation and steelmaking. Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded domestic coal production and transport infrastructure. We analyze effects of both these pressures on Chinese coal imports, with a purpose-built model of China’s coal sector with installation-level detail, representing roughly a 300-fold increase in granularity versus earlier models. We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affects seaborne imports much more strongly than domestic supply. Recent expansions of rail and port capacities, which reduce the costs of getting domestic coal to southern coastal provinces, will further reduce the demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonization on coal imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall because of the expanded supply of cheap and high-quality coking coal from neighboring Mongolia.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

China

coal imports

decarbonization policy

energy security

linear optimization

Data and code availability

Our full code and data, including all files describing the different components of the network, are available via the following public repository: https://zenodo.org/record/6380913. This repository includes a set of spreadsheets with intuitive naming conventions for creating scenario inputs, step-by-step instructions on how to run the model, including scripts to create intuitive spreadsheets summarising results, and an example problem file. This repository includes a censored copy of the proprietary coal mine production and costs data, with the original data layout but with mock values, so that the code remains fully functional. Researchers interested in using this model may populate this file with their own coal mine data. We also censor the data on power and steel plants, at the request of the data provider (Global Energy Monitor), but include plant identifiers as used in these original datasets. This allows others to replicate the files while Global Energy Monitor retains control over distribution of their data.

A separate public repository provides all data and code required for replication of all the figures, as well as full-sized pdf of all figures: https://zenodo.org/record/6256270.

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