UK Edition
Mandatory coronavirus vaccines could cause 123,000 staff to leave health and social care, government analysis has revealed - amid calls for patients to be told their medic’s jab status.
The Health Secretary announced on Tuesday that Covid jabs will become mandatory for NHS frontline staff, but not until April.
An impact report estimates that even then, around 88,000 health workers - including 73,000 NHS staff - are likely to remain unvaccinated, along with 35,000 social care workers.
The government analysis said this could “may lead to reduced or delayed services”, with the system “currently stretched with an elective waiting list of 5.72 million and high levels of vacancies”.
Campaigners for the elderly warned on Tuesday that delaying the move until April could cost untold lives, by allowing the virus to spread through hospitals this winter.
Until then, patients should have the right to know if the person treating them has been vaccinated, they said.
Dennis Reed, from Silver Voices, a campaign group for the elderly, said: “How many vulnerable people will be infected by unvaccinated NHS staff over the next six months and, how many will die?
“Staff recruitment worries should not be allowed to delay this life and death measure. We don’t want a repeat of last year’s scandal in care homes.
“The public should have a right to know whether they are being treated by someone who is more likely to infect them.”
The figures in the analysis suggested that the number of people leaving could dwarf the number persuaded to get the vaccine.
Fears of staff exodus
Estimates suggested that while 22,000 NHS workers are likely to take up jabs in the next five months, 73,000 may remain unjabbed and not exempt.
Overall, the analysis suggested that 54,000 reluctant health and care workers could be persuaded to get vaccinated - but that 123,000 could walk away from their jobs.
Replacing unvaccinated workers could cost £270 million, the report suggested.
Sajid Javid said the decision to delay enforcing mandatory jabs until April reflected concerns about “workforce pressures” in the NHS this winter.
It came after NHS chiefs and union leaders raised fears of an exodus of unvaccinated staff.
There are more than 90,000 vacancies in the NHS, and more than 100,000 staff are currently unvaccinated - as many as one in five in some trusts.
In a Commons statement, Mr Javid said compulsory jabs were required for NHS staff because they “carry a unique responsibility” and a duty to avoid preventable harm.
He said their close contact with some of the most vulnerable people in society meant the step was justified.
But last week, NHS chiefs called for the measure to be delayed until April to ensure the health service can get through a "very, very difficult winter".
Mr Javid told the Commons: “It’s with this in mind that we've chosen for the condition not to come into force until 12 weeks after parliamentary approval, allowing time for remaining colleagues to make the positive choice to protect themselves and those around them and time for workforce planning.”
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said: “We are pleased that the Government has listened to trust leaders and confirmed that the deadline for mandatory vaccinations for health staff will be introduced in April, when the busy winter period has passed.”
‘NHS has more than enough on its plate
On Tuesday, unions objected to the plans.
Sara Gorton, head of health at Unison, said: "The NHS has more than enough on its plate, without the Government adding more to its to-do list.”
Health officials said the regulations cover health and social care workers who have direct, face-to-face contact with people while providing care, such as doctors, nurses, dentists and domiciliary care workers.
They will also apply to ancillary staff such as porters or receptionists, who may have social contact with patients but are not directly involved in their care.
Only those who do not have face-to-face contact with patients or who are medically exempt will not be required to have two doses of a Covid jab.
Unvaccinated frontline health and social care staff will need to have their first vaccine within the next 12 weeks in order to get their second jab before the April 1 deadline.
Care home workers in England have already been told they must be fully vaccinated, with a deadline of this Thursday.
Mr Javid said that since the announcement on social care was made, the number of people working in care homes who had not had at least one dose has fallen from 88,000 to 32,000.
Amanda Pritchard, NHS England chief executive, said: "The NHS has always been clear that staff should get the life-saving Covid vaccination to protect themselves, their loved ones and their patients, and the overwhelming majority have already done so.”
On Tuesday, officials in Northern Ireland announced plans for a public consultation on mandatory Covid-19 and flu vaccinations for new recruits to the health and social care.
However, the Welsh and Scottish governments are not planning to introduce mandated vaccines for health and social care staff.